Weapons and Caught Stealing in Tight Labor Day Box Office Battle

This Labor Day weekend brings an unusually quiet finish to the summer box office, with two films, Weapons and Caught Stealing, locked in a close race for the top spot.

Warner Bros. and New Line’s Weapons, directed by Zach Cregger, is holding strong as a top contender despite having already surpassed $200 million worldwide. The horror film, which has been buoyed by positive word of mouth and even early Oscar buzz for co-star Amy Madigan, is projected to land around $11–12 million over the long weekend. That momentum could secure it another week at number one.

Sony’s Caught Stealing, meanwhile, is putting up a strong fight. The Darren Aronofsky-directed caper, starring Austin Butler and Zoe Kravitz, pulled in $1.2 million from Thursday previews. Analysts expect it to finish in the same $10–12 million range, making the weekend’s crown a toss-up. Produced for $40 million thanks to New York tax incentives, the film is drawing positive reactions from both critics and audiences.

What makes this matchup notable is the scale: whichever title wins, it will likely post one of the lowest grosses for a number-one film this year. Industry tracker The Numbers describes it as one of the “second-lowest” weekends for a top finisher in 2025, underscoring the sluggish close to summer.

Other releases are entering the fray with more modest ambitions. Searchlight’s The Roses arrives as counter-programming, while The Toxic Avenger revives cult cinema nostalgia. Adding to the mix, Universal is celebrating the 50th anniversary of Jaws with a wide re-release, giving audiences a chance to revisit Steven Spielberg’s classic on the big screen.

The broader box office reflects an industry catch-breath weekend. Recent hits like Freakier Friday and Nobody 2 are tapering off, while Weapons continues to outperform projections. With Labor Day historically known as a softer period, the lower revenue levels aren’t unexpected, but the close contest adds intrigue.

For Butler, Caught Stealing marks another high-profile turn following his breakout success, and for Cregger, Weapons cements his rise as a genre filmmaker to watch. Both projects highlight the mix of star power and inventive direction shaping late-summer cinema.

Audiences may not see record-breaking numbers this weekend, but the competition between Weapons and Caught Stealing ensures that the final days of the summer season won’t pass quietly.